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Technology landscape definition11/20/2023 ![]() The race for technological dominance is inextricably intertwined with evolving geopolitics and is increasingly shaped by broader political, economic, and societal rivalries, particularly those associated with China’s rise. Taken together, these technology platforms can then provide a foundation for rapid innovation while lowering the barriers to market entrance. By 2040, the increasing convergence of technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), high-speed telecommunications, and biotechnology, will be augmented by increased understanding of the social and behavioral sciences to enable rapid breakthroughs and user customized applications that are far more than the sum of their parts. For example, the smartphone was enabled by decades of basic research and development in electronics, antennas, materials, batteries, telecommunications networks, and user interfaces. The convergence of seemingly unrelated areas of scientific research and technological applications is making the rapid development of novel applications possible, practical, and useful. Scientific Convergence Sparking Innovation. The diffusion of technological knowledge, the aggressive setting of standards to favor one technology solution over another, and ever shorter product development timelines will incentivize long-term strategy and rapid decisionmaking to avoid missteps and falling behind competitors. The increasing convergence of seemingly unrelated fields and the rise of global competition to generate and lock-in advantage are accelerating the emergence of cutting-edge technologies. Multiple trends are shaping the technology landscape of the next two decades, and while new technologies will not emerge uniformly or predictably, they are likely to share some common drivers and dynamics. Emerging technologies also raise myriad ethical, societal, and security questions-ranging, for example, from who we are as humans, to our impact on the environment, to the bounds of acceptable warfare. The increasing convergence of seemingly unrelated fields and the rise of global competition to generate and lock in advantage are accelerating the emergence of cutting-edge technologies.Īssessing technological trends and their broader implications is challenging because timelines remain uncertain, the path from foundational science to a transformational application can be difficult to discern, and the connections between a technology and its potential broader implications can be indirect and complex. ![]() (HYPERCONNECTED WORLD - Click image to enlarge) ![]() Spin off technologies and applications will be available for rapid adoption, enabling developing countries to take advantage of the latest core advances, develop global applications in niche areas, and contribute to global supply chains.The race for technological dominance is inextricably intertwined with evolving geopolitics and the broader US-China rivalry, but technological advantage will be augmented by companies that have a long-term focus, resources, and global reach.The next decades will see increasing global competition for the core elements of technology supremacy, such as talent, knowledge, and markets, potentially resulting in new technological leaders or hegemonies.During the next two decades, the pace and impact of technological developments are likely to increase, transforming and improving human experiences and capabilities and offering the potential to tackle challenges such as aging, climate change, and low productivity growth, while creating new tensions and disruptions within and between societies, industries, and states.
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